Minding the Planet

The Future of the Desktop

(Brief excerpt from a new post on my Public Twine -- Go there to read the whole thing and comment on it with me and others...).

I have spent the last year really thinking about the future of the Web. But lately I have been thinking more about the future of the desktop. In particular, here are some questions I am thinking about and some answers I've come up so far.

This is a raw, first-draft of what I think it will be like.

Is the desktop of the future going to just be a web-hosted version of the same old-fashioned desktop metaphors we have today?

No. We've already seen several attempts at doing that -- and they never catch on. People don't want to manage all their information on the Web in the same interface they use to manage data and apps on their local PC.

Partly this is due to the difference in user experience between using real live folders, windows and menus on a local machine and doing that in "simulated" fashion via some Flash-based or HTML-based imitation of a desktop.

Web desktops to-date have simply have been clunky and slow imitations of the real-thing at best. Others have been overly slick. But one thing they all have in common: None of them have nailed it.

Whoever does succeed in nailing this opportunity will have a real shot at becoming a very important player in the next-generation of the Web, Web 3.0.

From the points above it should be clear that I think the future of the desktop is going to be significantly different from what our desktops are like today.

It's going to be a hosted web service

Is the desktop even going to exist anymore as the Web becomes increasingly important? Yes, there is going to be some kind of interface that we consider to be our personal "home" and "workspace" -- but it will become unified across devices.

Currently we have different spaces on different devices (laptop, mobile device, PC). These will merge. In order for that to happen they will ultimately have to be provided as a service via the Web. Local clients may be created for various devices, but ultimately the most logical choice is to just use the browser as the client.

Our desktop will not come from any local device and will always be available to us on all our devices.

 

The skin of your desktop will probably appear within your local device's browser as a completely dynamically hosted web application coming from a remote server. It will load like a Web page, on-demand from a URL.

This new desktop will provide an interface both to your local device, applications and information, as well as to your online life and information.

Instead of the browser running inside, or being launched from, some kind of next-generation desktop web interface technology, it's will be the other way around: The browser will be the shell and the desktop application will run within it either as a browser add-in, or as a web-based application.

The Web 3.0 desktop is going to be completely merged with the Web -- it is going to be part of the Web. There will be no distinction between the desktop and the Web anymore.

Today we think of our Web browser running inside our desktop as an applicaiton. But actually it will be the other way around in the future: Our desktop will run inside our browser as an application.

The focus shifts from information to attention

As our digital lives shift from being focused on the old fashioned desktop (space-based metaphor) to the Web environment we will see a shift from organizing information spatially (directories, folders, desktops, etc.) to organizing information temporally (river of news, feeds, blogs, lifestreaming, microblogging).

Instead of being a big directory, the desktop of the future is going to be more like a Feed reader or social news site. The focus will be on keep up with all the stuff flowing through and what the trends are, rather than on all the stuff that is stored there already.

The focus will be on helping the user to manage their attention rather than just their information.

This is a leap to the meta-level. A second-order desktop. Instead of just being about the information (the first-order), it is going to be about what is happening with the information (the second-order).

It's going to shift us from acting as librarians to acting as daytraders.

Our digital roles are already shifting from effectively acting as "librarians" to becoming more like "daytraders." We are all focusing more on keep up with change than on organizing information today. This will continue to eat up more of our attention...

Read the rest of this on my public Twine! http://www.twine.com/item/11bshgkbr-1k5/the-future-of-the-desktop

WiTricity Coming Soon

Another interesting article on the move towards wireless power, or what some are calling "WiTricity." I've written about this previously. The team at MIT is making some good headway. Check out the article for a diagram of how their wireless power beaming system works. It can power any device within about 9 feet.

Nikola Tesla was working on wireless power beaming in the early 1900's, but since that time nobody has really succeeded in replicating his work or taking it further. Wireless power is an important and necessary step in technological evolution that simply must happen. My guess is that it will be a commercial mainstream technology within 20 years, if not sooner.

Frequent Mobile Phone Use Linked to Tumor

If you or your children use cell phones frequently, consider getting earphones...

Long-term users of mobile phones are significantly more likely to develop a certain type of brain tumour on the side of the head where they hold their handsets, according to new research.

A large-scale study found that those who had regularly used mobiles for longer than 10 years were almost 40 per cent more likely to develop nervous system tumours called gliomas near to where they hold their phones

New Wireless Power Technology -- No More Wires!

A group of physicists at MIT have come up with a new model for beaming wireless power to mobile devices, such as computers or cell phones. It promises to do for power, what wireless ethernet hubs do for network connectivity.

I've been interested in wireless power ever since I first read the biography of Nikola Tesla in the early 1990's. Tesla was perhaps the most important inventor of the 20th century -- he singlehandedly invented much of what enables the modern electrical power grid today. He also pioneered radio, and many other technologies. But his greatest dream was wireless power. He believed he had discovered a way to beam electricity to any point on earth and embarked on several ambitious projects to test and commercialize his appraoch. But sadly his projects were never completed due to funding problems and interference by competitors and investors who had conflicting business interests. By the end of his life Tesla was a lonely and forgotten man, feeding pidgeons in the park.  At his death, many of his lab notebooks were confiscated and classified as Top Secret by the US military -- never to be seen again -- (and at least some this confiscated information was later used as the foundation for the Star Wars particle beam weaponry program). The greatest electrical genius in history was just too far ahead of his own time.

Tesla's work has still not been fully understood or replicated today. But what remains unclassified is a treasure trove of invention of great relevance to the world we live in today.  In 2003 I blogged an article, called "I Want Wireless Power" outlining why I want this technology. Another great article about this opportunity is here.

Study: Blackberry Addiction Similar to Drugs

Blackberry email devices can be so addictive that owners may need to be weaned off them with treatment similar to that given to drug users, experts warned today.

They said the palmtop gadgets, which have been nicknamed 'crackberries' because users quickly become hooked on them, could be seriously damaging to mental health.

 

The study, carried out by New Jersey's Rutgers University School, claims the Blackberry is fuelling a rise in email and internet addiction, with sufferers able to survive only a few minutes without checking for new mail.

One key sign of a user being addicted is if they focus on their Blackberry ignoring those around them

Location Awareness -- The Next Big Thing

Japanese cell phone company KDDI is offering a new GPS-enabled 3D navigational tool to their 17 million subscribers (see article and picture). Their system helps consumers navigate city streets and even within buildings, using an innovative 3D map and audio directions. This system is similar to (but possibly more advanced than) the in-car navigation systems we are familiar with, such as Hertz "Neverlost" or the Magellan products (note: I have a Magellan aftermarket nav system in my car -- it's one of the most useful things I ever bought!).

GPS-enabled mobile devices and the location-aware services they enable are definitely a "Next Big Thing" contender.  They have many compelling potential uses in the near-term and mid-term future. Below are some of my wild speculations on how this technology could be used:

• Personal navigation. Your device can help you find your way when walking, driving, or even on the water or in the wilderness.
• Location-aware advertising. Your device can get special offers from stores near you, as you walk or drive around, according to your permissions, preferences and profile of course.
• Location-aware storage, search and retrieval. Your device remembers where you were when you wrote a note, took a photo, or sent a message.You can later search for your stuff based on where you were -- for example, "photos I took in Brazil" or "Notes I made at PC Forum in 2006" (for the best example of this, see the amazing product, EverNote -- the next version of which I got to preview recently, it is mind-blowingly cool!).
• Location-aware photo-enhancement. When you take a photograph it is not only tagged with time and location where it was taken, but the content of the photo can be automatically tagged based on the orientation of the camera. For example, if you take a photo of the Empire State Building, your camera will someday be able to tag the photo as being about the Empire State Building, and can even detect and tag the shape of the building itself in the photo.
• Location-aware social networking. Your device can track people nearby who are your friends, family, colleagues, or who match your interests and want to meet you (for example: dating). This can be useful to find people at a crowded event, or to hook up with your friends while out on the town, or to meet people at a trade show or conference.
• Location-aware personal security. Your device can keep a transcript of your movements on a server. Parties you authorize can track you if they need to find you immediately, or in case you go missing. In addition, bulk alerts can be sent to people who happen to be in particular areas -- for example, if a tornado is coming, people who happen to be in that vicinity can be warned.
• Location-aware information services. You can get news and other local info about the place you happen to be in. If you are standing outside a restaurant you can see reviews and discussions from people who have been there before. If you are already in the restaurant you can see recommendations of what to order from people who were there before you. Information can be virtually posted to particular places or regions -- you can hang a virtual post it note in your doorway so that anyone who passes through it gets the note.

New Low Power Broadband Wireless Networking Technology May Spark Revolutionary Advance

This article just came in (via Kurzweil)

A little-known start-up has demonstrated wireless broadband 1000 times more efficient than WiMax – and claims the technique could also make wireless LANs that will run for years on watch batteries.

xG Technology, based in Sarasota, Florida, used a transmitter not unlike a cordless phone base station, operating in the unlicensed - and crowded - 900MHz band, to send a 3.7Mbit/s data signal to a radius of 18 miles across the suburbs of Miami, using 50mW and an omnidirectional antenna.

The data rate and specifications don't exactly match xG's original plan, which we reported in July, as the demo uses a narrower band and a lower data rate. However, with an omnidirectional antenna, the demonstration appears to have transmitted a signal at a power density other schemes would find impossible. The company's xMax technology uses a novel modulation scheme, described at xG's own site.

Silent Speech Technology

NASA's research on subvocalization technology is moving forward. Their system intercepts nerve signals to the vocal cords before the speaker makes a sound and then figures out what words they signify. This technology will enable people to speak silently on the phone or to their computers, without moving their lips or making a sound. It's almost telepathy. I blogged about this last year when it first came out. It's actually a technology I dreamed about a while back -- "silent speech" is one of those things that has to happen in order to truly free humans from keyboards (although I must confess, I love to type).

Scale-Free Networks and Mobile Services

Here is an interesting article about an analysis of SMS messaging versus e-mail messaging on mobile networks. The conclusion is that e-mail messaging is more efficient for mobile consumers because email networks are scale-free networks. The article predicts that services based on scale-free topologies will ultimately win out over less optimal alternatives. Thanks to Murli.

New Way to Extend Mobile Device Battery Life

HP researchers have devised a new way to save power on mobile devices by only activating the part of a device's display that the user is actually looking at.

Cell Phones Become Credit Cards

It's finally happening in the USA -- your cell phone is about to morph into a credit card, and soon will evolve into your digital wallet. Read more.

Near Field Communication

NFC. An interesting way for devices to share data, if they are within a few centimeters of one another. Sounds kind of like Bluetooth -- which I have still not needed for anything. But I like the vision anyway -- if all devices did this it could be very useful -- I've always wanted to be able to "grab" data by swiping my phone near something I am interested in (without needing a bar code scanner).

Storing Data In the Human Body

Following up on my earlier post about storing messages in DNA it might be interesting to explore ways to encode large volumes of data directly into parts of the human body. Messing with DNA is risky -- it may be safer to store data in other parts of the human body (with the one potential disadvantage that such data would not be passed down via heredity). Here are some suggestions for parts of the human body that might be good media for data-storage:

Microsoft Patents using Human Body to Transmit Power and Data

Check out Microsoft's new patent for transmitting power and data through the human body. Good idea.

Photo Recognition an Alternative to GPS?

New software can figure out where you are positioned based on analyzing a photo in near real time. Simply send it a photo from your camera-phone and the software will match the image to a database of locations -- such as buildings in a city -- and give you back your coordinates. The software is potentially more accurate than GPS.